The momentous occasion is almost upon us: the 96th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, March 10, at 7:00 pm EST. So, without further ado, here are my predictions—some from wishful thinking—for (most of) this year’s Oscars!
A brief note: at the time of this writing, I have not seen Poor Things, The Holdovers, American Fiction, or The Zone of Interest. I will still attempt to make even-handed predictions based on knowledge about them, but keep this information in mind should this article contain any hot takes. We can’t watch ‘em all!
Cinematography
Rodrigo Prieto – Killers of the Flower Moon
The nominees for Cinematography this year are stacked. Between Oppenheimer, Maestro, and Killers of the Flower Moon, I see this as a tight race. I wouldn’t mind if any of the films nominated walked away with the trophy.
The cinematography in Killers, however, is simply stunning. This is the closest Martin Scorsese has gotten to making a Western, and Prieto absolutely delivers on the overall aesthetics and framing of every single shot. From the scene of Osage dancing in the oil they strike, to the heartbreaking moments when White people killed them for their money, to Scorsese’s somber cameo as the host of a radio hour program, every shot is crisp, beautifully arranged, and invites the viewer into a deeper experience of the heartbreaking story. (For more of my thoughts on the film, check out this article.)
Music (Original Score)
Ludwig Göransson – Oppenheimer
Listen (pun intended), we all know Oppenheimer is going to have a massive run at this year’s Oscars. (More on that later.) One win I’m really hopeful for, and truly believe would be the best pick, is for Ludwig Göransson’s masterful work on the film’s score.
From the popular piece, “Can You Hear the Music”, to some of the score’s more subliminal pieces like “Fusion” and “Power Stays in the Shadows”, Oppenheimer’s score does its job perfectly. It musically brings tension, or fear, or sorrow, or excitement, to the ears of those whose eyes are already captured by every moment. A sharp turn away from his work in Tenet—the techno-driven sci-fi soundtrack—his work in the three-hour historical biopic is classical at times. It’s truly fitting for such a sweeping and epic film.
Directing
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
I mean, need I say more?
Martin Scorsese truly is the greatest living filmmaker. (Even Francis Ford Coppola agrees.) His directing skills have been insurmountable even since his early career: After Hours and Taxi Driver were indications even 40+ years ago of how talented he is. But even now, as he grays and recognizes that his time comes near to stop filmmaking, he resiliently directs a somber, brutal, and tragic story of the Osage County murders. He makes a three-and-a-half hour film feel like just a few moments of magic, and his storytelling brings to life his characters superbly.
But, where’s the Greta Gerwig nomination? She deserved it!
I do feel as if Christopher Nolan could win, and it would be much deserved. But my underdog prediction is Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest, merely based on the prescience of the film and the Academy’s burgeoning need to use their awards choices as tokens for some sort of moral aptitude.
Costume Design
Jacqueline Durran – Barbie
Greta Gerwig, man. She just doused the world in pink and brought to life the most iconic childhood toy of all time, all while sharing a meaningful message and packing plenty of references in the film. She couldn’t have done it, though, without an outstanding costume design department.
Jacqueline Durran’s work here is stunning. The task of designing costumes that strike the balance between doll and human in the way they sit on every character is no small accomplishment. She conjured decades of Barbie memorabilia and brought it to life perfectly. It may seem unimpressive, as many of the outfits (e.g., Barbie’s pink checkered dress) aren’t that groundbreaking, but I’d like to think there’s still beauty and talent in subtle art.
I predict, however, that Poor Things will take the cake on this one. From what I’ve seen, and what I know about Yorgos Lanthimos’s eccentric style, Barbie might not stand a chance.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
Okay, I haven’t seen many of the films for these nominations, but all I know is America Ferrera does not deserve the Oscar nom for this. Her monologue was powerful and delivered perfectly, but outside of that, her performance was bland to me.
Emily Blunt, though? My goodness. Some of the best supporting work I’ve seen in years. Her interactions with Tell and other scientists, her chemistry with Cillian Murphy, her portrayal of a struggling housewife—just powerful. She deserves this one.
Actress in a Leading Role
Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
There have been few cases in which one actor is nominated for two best picture films, but Sandra Hüller managed it with Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. In the French crime drama, Hüller portrays a confusing, melodramatic, furious woman on trial for the death of her husband.
As this film unfolds, she performs every facet of the complex character well: from her lack of fluency in the French language, to her complicated marriage, to her tender relationship with her son, Hüller gives a most compelling performance that steals the show for this incredible film.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Robert Downey, Jr. – Oppenheimer
AHHHHHHH.
This is easily the hardest decision I have to make for this year’s Oscars, and it’s between two Roberts. Robert De Niro’s maddeningly subtle, subversive performance in Killers of the Flower Moon is one of my favorites from 2023, and even in De Niro’s career! But Robert Downey, Jr.’s performance in Oppenheimer might be his career best.
If it’s not, it’s the comeback of a lifetime. I don’t mean that he wasn’t incredible as Tony Stark—because he was the perfect fit—but I mean that his return to cinema (serious and not superhero-charged) is one of the best of all time. His madness and seriousness, his demeanor, his facial expressions—everything was working and contributed to the tension and excitement of Oppenheimer. If I could split the trophy in two and give it to both Roberts, I would, but alas I am not strong enough. Therefore I give it to the one whose role was subtly one of the best of the year.
Actor in a Leading Role
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Starting to see the trend here?
I know that Bradley Cooper’s Oscar campaign, as with most, is quite laughable and absurd. Can you really want an Oscar that badly? But I truly enjoyed his portrayal of Leonard Bernstein in Maestro. And by the way, where is Leonardo DiCaprio’s nomination here? What a snub!
It’s undoubtable and unavoidable that Cillian Murphy wins this Oscar. He deserves it; this is clearly his career-best performance in a history of career-highs. As Christopher Nolan wrote on the front page of his screenplay, “Dearest Cillian. Finally, a chance to see you lead.” And lead he did. For a film with incredible depth of cast and surprising performances (here’s lookin’ at you, David Krumholtz), Murphy still blew this out of the water. Nobody else could have nailed this role the way he did. From his slow decay as the most important—and dangerous—man in the world, to his surprisingly uncanny looks to the real Robert J. Oppenheimer, Murphy truly gave everything in this film, and deserves all the recognition he could get.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Celine Song - Past Lives
The rumors are true: Past Lives is easily the most emotional film of the year. It’s actually incredible. It’s the anti-Notebook of love stories, and it’s the most refreshing take on drama from the year.
Celine Song’s story weaves a lifelong romance with a steady marriage—Nora (Greta Lee) must choose between two paths. In side-stepping The Notebook’s ending, which is the epitome of “love” in Hollywood, Past Lives depicts the throes of love lost, and let go. Song’s writing here is incredible (barring a slow opening), and the third act is so gut-wrenchingly beautiful and resonant that it highly deserves the award for screenplay.
However, I could definitely see The Holdovers or Anatomy of a Fall winning this category. I wouldn’t be upset about the latter.
Best Picture
Oppenheimer
Here’s what I want to happen: I want Anatomy of a Fall to win it. I really do. It was one of my favorites of the year! And instead of submitting it for the French International Feature pick, they had a “we’re not aiming for the truck!” moment that has so far really paid off. I want it to take the cake.
But Oppenheimer will and indeed should win Best Picture. I mean come on. Absolutely monumental film. Christopher Nolan proves an incredible filmmaker even 20 years into his career, with the innovation and boldness to make a sprawling, deft film about one of the most complicated and detrimental men in history. And it had movie-goers lined up, seeing a three-hour, dialogue-driven movie multiple times on the big screen. What Oppenheimer has done for cinema, for the public, and of course, for the memes, deserves the highest award. Everyone involved should get recognition here. Let me hear every cast member’s speech. Get Josh Peck up there. Oppie sweep! (If not, then please let Anatomy win like everything it’s nominated for.)
Well, folks, there you have it. My predictions, hopes, fears, dreams—laid bare for you to see and judge. Don’t hurt my feelings.